Abstract Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress 1,2 . However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003–2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA’s mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP’s TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020–2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress.
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Abstract Eurasia, home to ~70% of global population, is characterized by (semi-)arid climate. Water scarcity in the mid-latitude Eurasia (MLE) has been exacerbated by a consistent decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS), attributed primarily to human activities. However, the atmospheric mechanisms behind such TWS decline remain unclear. Here, we investigate teleconnections between drying in low-latitude North Atlantic Ocean (LNATO) and TWS depletions across MLE. We elucidate mechanistic linkages and detecte high correlations between decreased TWS in MLE and the decreased precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration (PME) in LNATO. TWS in MLE declines by ~257% during 2003-2017 due to northeastward propagation of PME deficit following two distinct seasonal landfalling routes during January-May and June-January. The same mechanism reduces TWS during 2031-2050 by ~107% and ~447% under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Our findings highlight the risk of increased future water scarcity across MLE caused by large-scale climatic drivers, compounding the impacts of human activities.more » « less
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Abstract Grasslands are expected to experience droughts of unprecedented frequency and magnitude in the future. Characterizing grassland responses and recovery from drought is therefore critical to predict the vulnerability of grassland ecosystems to climate change. Most previous studies have focused on ecosystem responses during drought while investigations of post‐drought recovery are rare. Few studies have used functional traits, and in particular bud or clonal traits, to explore the mechanisms underlying grassland responses to and recovery from drought.
To address this issue, we experimentally imposed a four‐year drought in a C3‐dominated grassland in northeastern China and monitored recovery for 3 years post‐drought. We investigated the immediate and legacy effects of drought on total above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP), ANPP of functional groups (rhizomatous grasses, bunch grasses and forbs), and how the legacy effects were driven by plant species diversity, clonal traits and vegetative traits.
We found that drought progressively reduced total ANPP over the 4‐year period. The reductions in total ANPP in the first and third drought years were caused by the decrease in ANPP of bunch grasses only, while that of the second year was caused by declines in ANPP of bunch grasses and forbs, and the fourth year decline was linked to all three functional groups. The post‐drought recovery of ANPP, which occurred despite the continued loss of plant species diversity, was mainly driven by rapid recovery of rhizomatous and bunch grasses, which compensated for the slow response by forbs. The rapid post‐drought recovery of these grasses can be attributed to their relatively large, intact bud and shoot densities post‐drought, as well as the recovery of plant height and specific leaf area. The rapid recovery of grasses possibly restricted the growth and distribution of forbs, resulting in reduced forb ANPP and, consequently, lower species diversity during the recovery period.
Synthesis . These results highlight the potential for positive legacy effects of drought on ANPP as well as the important and complementary roles of plant reproductive and vegetative traits in mediating ecosystem recovery from drought in a C3‐dominated grassland.
